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| #33853 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:43 AM 19.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N... 94.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
