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| #33873 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 19.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 DATA FROM THE NWS BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN AT A RATE OF ABOUT 1 MB PER HOUR THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS HAS NOT EQUATED TO AN INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...YET. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AT ABOUT 1445Z. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE WOBBLE ABOUT THIS MEAN MOTION...WITH A RECENT WOBBLE TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES THAT ARE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. UPPER AIR DATA AT 19/12Z INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL 290-295 DEGREE MOTION IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT. THIS MOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ORECAST AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH EMILY BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPEICALLY SINCE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ARE ACTUALLY T6.0/115 KT AND HIGHER...BUT RECON DATA INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29.5C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER. IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.9N 94.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 24.4N 96.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.6N 98.0W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 72HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND |
