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| #33946 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 19.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 230 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND EMILY COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...110 KM/HR. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 95.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
