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| #34032 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 19.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
