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| #34037 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 19.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 THE LAST TWO RECON FIXES JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING... ALTHOUGH MORE SLOWLY THAN IT HAD BEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT THE MEASUREMENT 942 MB AT 2114Z WAS SUSPECT... THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE 948 MB MEASURED AT 2318Z... AND A MORE RECENT FIX NEAR 02Z OF 944 MB INDICATED THE DECREASING TREND CONTINUES. THE FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 110 KT. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF EMILY IS IMPRESSIVE... WITH A 17 NM WIDE EYE AND A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A CONCENTRIC BAND AT A RADIUS OF 35 NMI. GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS AND WELL-ORGANIZED INTERNAL STRUCTURES... SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. EMILY TOOK A JOG TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z... BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED... ESTIMATED AT 285/6. 00Z UPPER DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. EMILY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BRING EMILY TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WELL INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR MEXICO BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO THE RECENT STALL. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 24.5N 96.4W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W 120 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
