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| #34116 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 20.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EMILY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. SAN FERNANDO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 53 MPH...WHILE BROWNSVILLE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
