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| #34205 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 20.Jul.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY STICK PACKING A PUNCH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. PORTIONS OF BOTH WARNING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR DOWNGRADED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES ... 170 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES ... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BOTH REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALSO INDICATES THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
