Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #34263 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 20.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES THAT SUPPORTED 70 KT AT THE 18Z SYNOPTIC TIME. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER ...THEY HAVE DECREASED TO 65-67 KT AT 9000 FT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...TENACIOUS EMILY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY...WESTWARD...AT 275/10. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED AWAY FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFTER 18 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REMAIN BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...A 24-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES FOR THOSE USERS WHO MAY NEED AN 18-HOUR INTERMEDIATE POSITION. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER THIS EVENING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 24-30 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 25.0N 99.2W 60 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 21/0600Z 25.1N 100.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 21/1800Z 25.1N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
