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| #34350 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 20.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT A STRONG RAINBAND PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN MONTERREY MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER. DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RADAR STILL INDICATE WINDS NEAR 50 KT AT ABOUT 10000 FEET IN THAT BAND... SUGGESTING THAT WINDS NEAR 45 KT COULD STILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EMILY THEREFORE REMAINS A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. INITIAL MOTION IS DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS JUST ABOUT TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST MEXICO... AND THIS SHOULD SOON LEAD TO A DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM THE CONVECTION. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 25.0N 100.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 25.0N 101.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
