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| #34387 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 21.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 THE CENTER OF EMILY HAS REACHED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. AT THIS MOMENT...THE STRONGEST REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS IN BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...MOST NOTABLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE DECAY...DECREASING WINDS ON THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY MEXICO... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT. SOME HIGHER WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN 12-24 HR. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER MOVES WESTWARD. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 25.0N 101.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 25.0N 102.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
