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| #34417 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:25 AM 21.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE CONTINUED WESTWARD. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15-20 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/02. THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD AND REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 110W AND 112W LONGITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OWING TO THE COLD WATER THAT LIES WEST OF BAJA. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATES A PERSISTENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE EMILY IS NO LONGER TECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR COMES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOWS UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES FROM THIS DECAYING SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FINALLY ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 25.0N 101.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 12HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND |
