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| #3477 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 AM 02.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004 THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF ALEX. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 992 MB AND THE PEAK 850 MB WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KT. THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO ROUGHLY 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS ALEX TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE...HOWEVER...FOR ALEX TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW AND BECOME A HURRICANE. ONLY THE 12-HOUR POSITION FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1200Z 31.3N 79.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 32.2N 78.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 33.4N 77.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 35.3N 74.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 37.5N 70.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0600Z 49.0N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
