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| #3498 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 02.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004 THE STRUCTURE OF ALEX IS EVOLVING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN CHANGES. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE IS NOW EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NO LONGER DROPPING...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM THIS MORNING HAS SLOWED...AT LEAST FOR NOW. ALEX IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH A RELATIVLY DEEP RESERVOIR OF 26C OR WARMER WATER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ALEX COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ALEX WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ALEX IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE IN A MORE CONSISTENT MANNER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/4. ONLY A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ALEX IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF ALEX...AND SO WITH THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IS BEING DISCONTINUED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 31.5N 78.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.1N 78.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 33.8N 76.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 35.8N 73.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 69.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 44.0N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1200Z 51.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
