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| #35032 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 23.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF FRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION ...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT LONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE SMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.3N 72.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W 30 KT |
