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| #35170 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 24.Jul.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 IN ADDITION TO THIS MORNING'S RECON MISSION...AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS WAS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT GERT HAVING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 35 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT THERE IS NOW ONLY A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.6N 97.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.1N 98.2W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1800Z 22.7N 99.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
