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| #35231 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 24.Jul.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ALONG WITH SATELLITE...INDICATE THAT GERT WAS STARTING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0000Z. WHILE THE CENTER STAYED BROAD...THE NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AT 11000 FT AT 2053Z...AND THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KT AT 850 MB ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AROUND 00Z. THE AIR FORCE PLANE COULD NOT QUITE REACH THE CENTER...BUT EXTRAPOLATED A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA IS THE BASIS FOR THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 1005 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. GERT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW-MID/LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 22.0N 98.1W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 99.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.1N 100.9W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
