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| #35330 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 25.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE ANALYSES. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE MORE DEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION. LATE BREAKING NEWS SINCE THE ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE WERE ESTIMATING. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON FRANKLIN PERSISTS...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS FRANKLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER FRANKLIN WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES ANYWHERE NEAR OUR FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE PASSING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND DISSIPATING. FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 070/4. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. IN SEVERAL DAYS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE VICINITY OF 60W...WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY DRIVE FRANKLIN TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF THE CENTER PASSING OVER THAT ISLAND. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FRANKLIN'S PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 31.1N 69.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 31.3N 69.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 32.2N 68.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 32.9N 67.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 62.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
