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| #3546 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:07 PM 02.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PASS INTO ALEX AT 1704Z GAVE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND RELEASED TWO DROPSONDES THAT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 AND 46 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 20 MILE-WIDE CIRCULAR EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SINCE THAT TIME...THE QUALITY OF THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS VARIED...WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL OCCASIONALLY PRESENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS COME UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN TODAY THAT HAS ENHANCED THE CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW. ALEX SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING ALEX TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKENING TREND. BY 72 HOURS...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/5...LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING ALEX OVER OR VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD SOON TURN ALEX ON A MORE NORTHEASTLY TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE PRECISELY CORRECT...THEN HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY VERY SMALL DEVIATIONS FROM THESE FORECASTS COULD RESULT IN HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED ON LAND. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS APPROPRIATE TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.1N 78.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 33.1N 77.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 34.8N 75.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 36.7N 72.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 44.0N 54.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
