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| #356255 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 AM 30.Jun.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 100 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 ...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 94.8W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR...AND A SLOW WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH AND A GUST TO 58 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST... THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
