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| #356480 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 30.Jun.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 AFTER A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT TURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXICO. ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 96 KNOTS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 24.5N 96.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
