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| #36148 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 28.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL-WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER... CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL WINDS REMAIN 50 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/16. FRANKLIN IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR...THEN BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 38.9N 66.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 40.8N 63.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 42.8N 59.3W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 54.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 31/0000Z 47.3N 49.3W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
