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| #36187 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 29.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER... ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE STEADILY WARMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45 TO 55 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/19. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION ON ROUGHLY THE PRESENT HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS JUST ABOUT OVER... AS FRANKLIN IS PASSING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. WHILE FRANKLIN CURRENTLY RETAINS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS... WITH THE CIRCULATION BEING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 40.3N 63.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 42.0N 60.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 44.2N 56.2W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1800Z 46.7N 50.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
