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| #3648 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 03.Aug.2004) TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022004 1500Z TUE AUG 03 2004 TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 54.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 54.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 54.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA |
