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| #365578 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 02.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB. NOAA BUOY 41041 HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT 70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 36-48 HOURS... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 45.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.6N 48.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 52.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 56.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 19.6N 59.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 68.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 69.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
