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| #3658 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 03.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THE PRESENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT...CATEGORY TWO. THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED A VERY SMALL FLIGHT-LEVEL MAXIMUM OF 105 KT AT 1135Z...BUT MORE RECENT PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 90 KT. THE 105 KT OBSERVATION WAS ALSO IN AN OPEN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL AND SO THE NORMAL 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT MAY NOT QUITE APPLY. TWO EYEWALL DROPSONDES REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 77 AND 87 KT. THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE NO HURRICANE FORCE SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING...BUT COOLER WATERS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SPLIT ON WHETHER ALEX WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OR MAINTAIN A DISTINCT CIRCULATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/13...FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT BASICALLY ON TRACK. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ALEX JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD IN ACCORD WITH THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 34.7N 75.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 35.9N 73.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 37.4N 70.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 38.5N 66.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 39.5N 61.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1200Z 44.5N 48.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1200Z...ABSORBED OR DISSIPATED |
