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| #3659 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 03.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING ONE...HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. YOU COULD MAKE THE CASE THAT A SMALL CIRCULATION EXISTS USING QUICKSAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS... STEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER... LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PRELIMINARY COORDINATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO ISSUE WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.2N 54.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 57.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 60.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 64.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 67.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 69.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 70 KT |
