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| #367796 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 11.Aug.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND 968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
