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| #3697 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 03.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012004 2100Z TUE AUG 03 2004 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 74.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 74.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 75.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.0N 68.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.4N 64.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.5N 59.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 46.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 300SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 44.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 47.0N 12.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 74.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
