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| #3698 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 03.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND RAINBANDS. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING ONE...HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. SOMETIMES FAST MOVING SYSTEMS HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE PRESENTATION BUT LACK SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY RECON DATA IN THE PAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOUR OR SO. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION...AND THE GFDL WHICH MADE IT A HURRICANE IN THE 06Z RUN NOW DISSIPATES IT IN THE 12Z RUN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS... STEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER... LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 13.6N 56.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.0N 59.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 63.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 66.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 68.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 71.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 26.5N 71.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 70.0W 70 KT |
