Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #370737 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 23.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010 THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 41.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 43.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 46.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.6N 48.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 51.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 55.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 57.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 58.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG |
