Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #370834 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 23.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010 DANIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE THIS EVENING. A 2148 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL TILT...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65 KT...RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY...OR EVEN RAPID...INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. DANIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/17. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 43.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 45.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.3N 47.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 49.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 52.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 59.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
