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| #371347 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 25.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON. SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14. EARL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.7N 33.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 35.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 39.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 45.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 51.3W 75 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 56.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 60.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
