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| #371587 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 26.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010 RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS CONTRACTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 0000Z WERE 90...90... AND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. ALTHOUGH THE EYEWALL CONTRACTION IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SYSTEM...IT IS PREFERABLE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL CONSERVATIVELY REMAIN 95 KT. DANIELLE HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS LEFT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH LIGHT-TO- MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. AFTER THAT TIME... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SHIPS MODEL. DANIELLE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THEREAFTER... THIS RIDGE ERODES AWAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT DANIELLE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THAT TROUGH AND RECURVED OUT TO SEA. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...THEN IS MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO NOW BECOMING VERY LIKELY. THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 57.6W 95 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 59.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 60.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 29.6N 60.9W 105 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 31.4N 60.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 38.5N 50.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 42.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
