Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #371640 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 27.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CURRENT ADT VALUES AROUND 6.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT. LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SHOW A PEAK AT 120 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND 36 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME. A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING BY DAYS 3 AND 4. BY DAY 5...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 72 HOURS...DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NEW FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 26.5N 58.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 60.0W 115 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 28.9N 60.9W 120 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 30.6N 60.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 32.9N 59.2W 105 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 37.5N 54.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 41.5N 31.5W 65 KT...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
