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| #371928 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 28.Aug.2010) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 51.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 10SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 20SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 51.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.1N 54.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 10SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 51.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
