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| #372057 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 28.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 ...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 55.4W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR THE CENTER OF EARL. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
