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| #372112 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 29.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION... DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 33.2N 57.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 35.9N 55.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 38.3N 53.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 39.8N 50.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 41.1N 46.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 34.0W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 03/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
