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| #372154 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:04 AM 29.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 800 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 ...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
