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| #372181 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 29.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING CDO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 58.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.6N 60.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.3W 105 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 69.8W 110 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 37.0N 71.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
