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| #372205 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 PM 29.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
