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| #37222 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 03.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH HARVEY...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 998 MB. THERE IS NOW A SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF LOW-SHEAR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HARVEY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN 36-48 HOURS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/9. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY WILL LEAVE THE SYSTEM BEHIND FOR THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS COULD CAUSE HARVEY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 31.1N 67.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 31.8N 65.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 32.5N 63.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 59.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 57.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 37.5N 52.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.5N 47.0W 30 KT |
