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#372242 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 29.Aug.2010)
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 59.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 59.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N 66.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.3N 70.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG