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| #372409 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 30.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT. SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED 70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 40.9N 50.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 41.9N 47.7W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 31/1200Z 43.4N 41.2W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 01/0000Z 46.0N 31.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 01/1200Z 48.0N 24.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 02/1200Z 53.0N 21.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 03/1200Z 61.5N 38.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG |
