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| #372608 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 31.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 ...EARL GETTING FARTHER FROM PUERTO RICO...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 66.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND CROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 41043...LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 63 MPH...101 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EARL. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM AST AND 900 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
