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| #372924 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:49 AM 01.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A EARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.1N 72.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 73.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 29.8N 75.0W 110 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.8N 75.2W 110 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 73.6W 100 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 60.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
