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| #373655 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 04.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 BOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS EARL HAS DEVELOPED A RING OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL. BASED ON THE LAST RECON DATA...LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONINGS. EARL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LANDMASSES. HOWEVER...EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER IT PASSES NORTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS AND RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 41.7N 67.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 45.4N 63.3W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0600Z 50.1N 58.8W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 05/1800Z 54.0N 55.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 06/0600Z 56.0N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 07/0600Z 56.5N 55.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
