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| #37376 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 04.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 THERE HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. HARVEY LOOKS FULLY TROPICAL TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN THE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN FORECAST FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AWAY FROM BERMUDA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY MOVES EASTWARD...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND HARVEY SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A NEW APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO SPEED UP AGAIN. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 32.0N 63.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 32.2N 61.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.6N 59.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 58.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 35.0N 54.9W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W 25 KT |
