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| #374345 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 07.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 THE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLIER THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES. THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED IN THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WERE 48 KT WITH A GUST TO 63 KT...OCCURRING AT VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN HARLINGEN TEXAS AROUND 0600 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE BAND OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. THE GUST FACTOR IS BEING HELD A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM DECAY OVER LAND AND SHOWS HERMINE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A WARM FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS. HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF...AND FASTER THAN... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 340/15. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HERMINE WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA IN 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF THE STORM BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. AS HERMINE WEAKENS TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 27.0N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.7N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.9N 100.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1800Z 33.3N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 09/0600Z 36.1N 99.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BROWN |
