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| #3758 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 04.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012004 0900Z WED AUG 04 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 71.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 50SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 71.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.2N 68.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.8N 63.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 42.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 45.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 75SW 0NW. 34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 48.0N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 71.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH |
