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| #376120 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 14.Sep.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010 ...KARL EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 85.5W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
